The forecast of social and economic development of Karelia for 2011 and the scheduled period of years 2012 and 2013 were considered on September, 29 at the session of the government of the republic.
Simeon Manuylov presents the forecast for economic progress
The session was chaired by the first assistant to the Head of Karelia Yuri Kancher. Chief Federal Inspector in the Republic of Karelia Alexander Hynninen, the Vice-Chairman of the Legislative Assembly of the RK Gennady Nechayev, deputy of the State Duma Valentina Pivnenko have also taken part in the session. Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the RK Simeon Manuylov presented the social and economic forecast.
Understanding cases of work of economy in the following years is important at budget planning, in fact, the level of incomes of the republic depends on work of Karelian enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary to elaborate competent and balanced forecast which the government will take into account in its work.
Conditions and parameters of the forecast of social and economic development of Karelia in 2011 - 2013 were developed in view of the similar document approved at the level of the government of Russia, assessment of negative influence of consequences of the world economic crisis, implementation of anti-recessionary measures, as well as dynamics of economic processes this year.
Session of the government of Karelia
Experts of the Ministry of Economic Development of Karelia have developed parameters of the forecast on two basic variants.
A conservative variant proceeds from low dynamics of economy development after the crisis, slow restoration of demand for production of enterprises. Annual rates of growth of economy according to this variant are predicted at the level of 2%.
A moderate to optimistical variant assumes faster restoration of economy, moderate to favorable external economic conjuncture on production of Karelian enterprises, and also considers implementation of some government programs at the regional level. In this variant the annual gain of total regional product in 2010-2013 is predicted at the level of 2.5-4%.
The Ministry of Economic Development of Karelia has suggested the government of the republic to use in the second, a moderate to optimistical variant, for its work. One of the main arguments in favour of optimism is that more than one half of production of Karelian enterprises is exported, and its prices in the world market grow. This, demand for products of timber industry complex in Europe grows, price of metallurgical raw material produced by one of the leading Karelian enterprises Karelsky Okatysh grows, situation in the world market of aluminium develops successfully, activity in the market of cellulose is high. As a whole, prospects of economic growth are estimated at the level of the same 4% a year stipulated for the republic. Thus, Karelian economy will grow together with the global.
The forecast provides, that the following years in Karelia will become a period of gradual escalating of rates of investment development. The mid-annual gain of physical volume of investments into the fixed capital will make more than 5%. Investments will be made in wood-working, pulp-and-paper industry, operations with real estate and extraction of minerals. The Ministry has already drawn the list of large investment projects to be implemented by 2013.
The gain of industrial production is predicted from 2.5% up to 4%. At that, higher rates of growth are expected in production of road metal and processing of wood. Moderate dynamics of growth is predicted in agriculture. The gain in volumes of placing housing in service is planned to achieve the level of 155,000 square meters by 2013, that exceeds the level of 2008. It is predicted that profit of Karelian enterprises will also increase.
Members of the government of Karelia have agreed with key parameters of the presented forecast of social and economic development of the republic and have charged the Ministry of Finance to use the moderate to optimistical variant of the basic economic parameters to form budget revenues for 2011 and the scheduled period of 2012-2013.